The purpose of this report is to highlight the significant inaccuracies in the messaging from Atlantic City Electric and the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities.
In this report, I will present factual evidence demonstrating that the Summer of 2024 was remarkably similar to the Summer of 2022 in terms of heat levels. In fact, some areas across Southern New Jersey experienced slightly cooler temperatures in 2024 compared to 2022.
You might ask, why not use 2023 for comparison? The answer is simple: the Summer of 2023 was somewhat cooler due to the influence of La Niña and persistent troughing in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The Summer of 2022 provides a much more accurate comparison to the conditions we observed in 2024.
This report is composed of verifiable facts and not one bit of personal feelings. My company and I benefit in no way by putting these findings together. We are not paid by anyone nor do we have any type of vested interest aside for standing up for folks that do not have a platform or a voice.
Furthermore this report is also fact-checked by meteorologists with decades of experience in forecasting for energy companies across the country. Consider this report peer-reviewed research that uses past meteorological events, in this case, documented temperature patterns to prove while electricity bills have significantly higher than 2022 (the case study year), temperature difference is basically non-existent.
Let’s start with some definitions of terms that will be used throughout this report.
Summer: The three-month period that aligns with the calendar months of June, July, and August in the Northern Hemisphere. This period is based on the annual temperature cycle and follows the standard Gregorian calendar, making it easier for meteorologists to compare climate data over time. It contrasts with astronomical summer, which is determined by the position of the Earth relative to the Sun.
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): is a measure used to estimate the demand for energy needed to cool buildings. It represents the number of degrees by which the daily average temperature exceeds a baseline, typically 65°F, which is considered the temperature at which buildings generally don’t need cooling or heating. The higher the CDD value, the greater the demand for air conditioning to maintain a comfortable indoor temperature. It’s calculated by subtracting the baseline temperature from the daily average temperature, and only positive results contribute to the CDD total.
South Jersey: This is the geographical area that is comprised of Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Camden, Gloucester, Salem and Southern Burlington/Atlantic Counties.
Heatwave: In New Jersey, a heatwave is typically defined as a period of at least three consecutive days with daily high temperatures reaching 90°F or higher. Heatwaves can vary in intensity and duration, often leading to increased energy demand, health risks, and strain on infrastructure due to the prolonged extreme heat.
Let’s begin by examining 2023 and why I don’t think it’s a reliable year for comparison. That summer was an outlier—one of the coolest in a decade of otherwise warmer summers.
Compared to the average, the summer of 2023 was just under 0.5° cooler than the 30-year statewide norm. The only year in the past decade that was cooler was 2017, which was slightly more than 0.5° below normal.
Focusing on the data for Interior South Jersey specifically, we see a similar pattern emerge:
Same with the Shoreline:
A persistent trough, or dip in the Jetstream, typical of a La Niña summer, shaped the weather pattern this season, keeping temperatures cooler throughout the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and here in South Jersey.
Over the past decade, our area has seen 8 out of 10 summers with above-normal temperatures, with 5 of those 8 being significantly higher than average. This reflects a clear trend we’ve observed over the past 20 years—not just in New Jersey, but across the board—where summers are getting hotter.
However, a changing climate doesn’t mean temperatures will increase steadily every year. Instead, we see this warming trend unfold gradually over several years. For example, 2020, 2021, and 2022 all recorded above-normal temperatures, while 2023 dipped slightly below normal. By 2024, temperatures rose again to match 2022 levels, according to data from the New Jersey State Climatologist’s office.
A closer look at the past five years reveals remarkable consistency, with only slight variations by tenths of a degree, highlighting the overall elevated temperatures in our region. While 2023 stands out as cooler than most, it remains only slightly below the 30-year average.
Before we dive into a comparison of 2022 and 2024, I want to highlight some glaring inconsistencies that have caught the attention of myself and thousands of others. I received hundreds of electricity bills from residents, and there was a clear trend: in many cases, their bills had doubled or even tripled compared to what they were paying in 2022.
Take this bill as an example: nothing changed in the home—no new electronics were added, and everything remained the same as in 2022. Yet, the bill increased in 2023, which makes no sense given that it was a cooler summer, as we discussed earlier. The bills continued to rise in 2024 – significantly higher while observed temperatures were unchanged from 2022.
Based on the temperature data, one would expect that a cooler summer would result in less energy use and therefore lower electricity bills. However, that was not the case.
Let’s take a closer look at the data to better understand what’s happening. In the summer of 2022, the total electricity bill was just over $700. During that time, solar production exceeded 5 MWh, and there were nearly fifty 90-degree days.
In the following summer, despite producing just under 5 MWh—a small reduction due to increased cloud cover, which contributed to cooler temperatures—the bill surged to $1,400. Even though there were half as many 90-degree days compared to 2022, the bill doubled.
Then came 2024. Solar production was slightly over 5 MWh, almost identical to 2022, and there were a dozen fewer 90-degree days, yet the bill rose again, this time to more than $1,700 for the season.
Since we’ve identified 2023 as an unusually cool summer, we’ll be using the summer of 2022 as our primary comparison point for the rest of this report, since it is the most recent year with similar average temperatures to 2024.
Now, let’s dive into the records and see how 2024 stacks up against previous summer seasons. While some have claimed this summer was the hottest since the 1930s, that’s not entirely accurate. The summer of 2024 did rank among the top 10 hottest in South Jersey, but it placed at #5—only slightly warmer than 2022, by just a tenth of a degree.
A key indicator of how hot a summer is—and its potential impact on power consumption—is the number of days that hit 90 degrees or higher.
Below is data gathered from various official reporting stations throughout the region, providing a well-rounded representation of South Jersey’s different geographical areas.
As you can see, 2022 experienced a noticeably higher number of 90-degree days in several areas across the region. In contrast, Atlantic City Marina reported zero 90-degree days in 2024.
Closely tied to 90-degree days are heatwaves. In New Jersey, a heatwave is defined as a period of three or more consecutive days with temperatures reaching the 90s.
Except for Estell Manor, all of South Jersey experienced the same number of heatwaves in 2024 as in 2022. Estell Manor, however, saw two additional heatwaves in 2022.
What stands out the most is the duration of each heatwave. In 2022, heatwaves lasted longer than in 2024, with the longest stretch in Estell Manor reaching 9 days. In contrast, the longest heatwave across all of South Jersey in 2024 was only 7 days. Notably, Atlantic City Marina experienced two consecutive 90-degree days in 2022, but none in 2024.
It’s worth noting that the summer of 2024 saw the coolest water temperatures in 15 years. The amount of sea fog and consecutive days with on-shore flow cut down on duration of heatwaves, especially along the coastal plain of SNJ.
Let’s now explore the top 5 hottest Junes, Julys, and Augusts in Southern New Jersey.
June 2024 was indeed hot, ranking as the second hottest June on record across all climate zones in New Jersey. However, it was still 1.8° cooler than the all-time record set in 2010. The average temperature for the month was 74.7°, which is 0.5° above the 30-year normal for June.
In July, we have a different story going on based off observations. 2024 is nowhere to be seen. 2022 comes into focus positioned as the 4th hottest July on record averaging 79.1°. For comparison, July 2024 averaged 77°.
August 2024 is notably absent from the list of hottest on record, while 2022 maintains its momentum from July. In fact, August 2022 tied for the hottest August ever recorded across New Jersey and interior South Jersey, with an average temperature of 78°, compared to just 75.7° in August 2024. The back-to-back record-breaking heat of July and August 2022 overshadows the (second) record hot June of 2024.
With record heat covered, let’s now dive into a more detailed comparison of average temperatures. Of our official reporting sites, four recorded higher average high temperatures in 2022 than in 2024, while Atlantic City International in EHT saw temperatures tied between the two years.
When it comes to low temperatures, we found that average overnight temperatures were 0.25° warmer at three of our official reporting sites. Atlantic City International ran 0.50° above 2024’s averages, and Cape May Airport also recorded a slightly higher overnight average compared to 2024.
Looking at the broader data, we can compare actual observed temperatures against the norm. Both 2022 and 2024 were well above average, but there was no notable difference suggesting a significant impact on energy consumption. In areas where 2024 was hotter, we are talking the difference of a fraction of a degree – one tenth or one degree.
Here’s arguably the most critical part of this entire research report: the data energy companies focus on most when determining energy demands—Cooling Degree Days.
A Cooling Degree Day (CDD) is a measurement used to estimate the demand for air conditioning. It represents how much the daily average temperature exceeds a baseline, typically 65°F. The more CDDs recorded, the higher the need for cooling, which directly correlates with increased energy consumption as air conditioners work harder to maintain comfortable indoor temperatures.
In 2022, New Jersey recorded 897 Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) compared to 899 in 2024, with the state average being 725. In interior South Jersey, 1,033 CDDs were observed in 2022 versus 1,029 in 2024, while the average is 853. Along the shoreline, 2022 saw 979 CDDs compared to 959 in 2024, with an average of 820. The slight increase of just 2 CDDs for the state in 2024 does not account for any significant rise in energy consumption.
When we look at county level, we find a very similar story. In areas where there is a slight increase from 2022 to 2024, the difference is negligible.
Same with our 5 official recording sites.
In conclusion, after hours of thorough research and analysis of charts and data provided by the New Jersey State Office of Climatology and NOAA, I have determined, in my professional opinion, that there has been no significant change in observed temperatures throughout the state, South Jersey, or along the coast that would justify an increased demand for energy.
The fact that the example bill shows a 100% rise from 2022 (a hot year) to 2023 (a cooler year), with a total increase of 122% since 2022, is cause for concern.
I can provide any additional documentation upon request that supports the findings in this report.
This report has been verified and fact checked by a team of meteorologists with over 100 years of experience in forecasting and climate studies.
Nick Pittman, President & CEO – 15 Years Forecasting Experience
Steve Mirsky, Senior Meteorologist – 40 Years Forecasting Experience
Jeff Mendelson, GM & Meteorologist – 30 Years Forecasting Experience
Brian Ivey, VP & COO – 10 Years Forecasting Experience
Britney Truempy, Evening Meteorologist – 10 Years Forecasting Experience