After a spring full of swings, the atmosphere is settling into a more familiar summer pattern, but that doesn’t mean it will be quiet. Early signals point to an active, and somewhat variable summer across much of the country.
A big part of this forecast centers around the development of El Niño, a warming of ocean waters in the Pacific. While we expect a much bigger influence closer to next winter it will have it’s impacts on hurricane season and our local summer weather. This year, El Niño is expected to strengthen steadily through the summer and likely get very strong.
Typically a weak hurricane season happens in the Atlantic with a stronger El Nino. It tends to trigger severe weather and flooding across the Plains and Midwest. More up and down along the East Coast.
A Warmer Pattern. Not Extreme
As we go through June, a large area of high pressure will build across the central part of the country and expand at times toward the East Coast. This setup favors above-average temperatures overall. A southeast ridge will also creep in through the Mid Atlantic. It looks like June could be the warmest compared to average out of the summer.
A large area of high pressure will frequently set up across the Western and Central United States. This favors:
- More consistent heat across the Rockies, Plains, and Southwest
- Longer stretches of hot, dry conditions in those regions
- Increasing risk for drought expansion where rainfall remains limited
This is where the most persistent heat signal exists this summer, and where operations may face longer dry periods, irrigation needs, and elevated fire risk at times.
Farther east, including the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic, the pattern still leans warmer than average overall, but with a key difference:
👉 Heat is less likely to lock in for extended periods
Instead, expect shorter bursts of heat followed by cooldowns, keeping conditions more manageable for crews.
More Clouds and Storms
Looking at more active and occasionally unsettled conditions.
We expect:
- Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms
- Periods of increased cloud cover
- Rainfall totals that trend near to slightly above normal overall
Storms will often develop along the edges of the heat, particularly from the Plains through the Midwest and into the Northeast. It’s known as a ridge runner pattern.
This means stretches of dry weather will still occur, but they are more likely to be interrupted by passing systems rather than prolonged drought.
This is a regional contrast summer:
- West & Central: Hotter, drier, and more prone to drought expansion
- Midwest & East: Warmer overall, but more variable and storm-influenced
That split is key for planning:
- Western operations may deal with heat stress and dryness
- Eastern operations will deal more with timing disruptions and storm management
The current drought monitor for early June showcases the trouble areas. When you line up the future below average precip and above average temp predictions you get into increased drought trends. So the central and western portions of the nation are concerns.
The Bottom Line for Contractors
Summer 2026 looks warmer than average overall, but not dominated by extreme heat in most areas.
- Significant, more persistent heat out West and Central U.S.
- More variable conditions in the East with frequent storms
- Limited risk of long-duration heat waves in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
- Localized drought expansion where heat and dryness overlap
Make it an awesome summer!